Title: Marginal Pseudo-Likelihood Learning of Markov Network structures

Abstract: Undirected graphical models known as Markov networks are popular for a wide variety of applications ranging from statistical physics to computational biology. Traditionally, learning of the network structure has been done under the assumption of chordality which ensures that efficient scoring methods can be used. In general, non-chordal graphs have intractable normalizing constants which renders the calculation of Bayesian and other scores difficult beyond very small-scale systems. Recently, there has been a surge of interest towards the use of regularized pseudo-likelihood methods for structural learning of large-scale Markov network models, as such an approach avoids the assumption of chordality. The currently available methods typically necessitate the use of a tuning parameter to adapt the level of regularization for a particular dataset, which can be optimized for example by cross-validation. Here we introduce a Bayesian version of pseudo-likelihood scoring of Markov networks, which enables an automatic regularization through marginalization over the nuisance parameters in the model. We prove consistency of the resulting MPL estimator for the network structure via comparison with the pseudo information criterion. Identification of the MPL-optimal network on a prescanned graph space is considered with both greedy hill climbing and exact pseudo-Boolean optimization algorithms. We find that for reasonable sample sizes the hill climbing approach most often identifies networks that are at a negligible distance from the restricted global optimum. Using synthetic and existing benchmark networks, the marginal pseudo-likelihood method is shown to generally perform favorably against recent popular inference methods for Markov networks.