Modelling Migration: Decisions, Processes and Outcomes

Publisher: IEEE

Abstract:
Human migration is uncertain and complex, and some of its distinct features, such as migration routes, can emerge and change very rapidly. Agency of various actors is one key reason for why migration eludes attempts at its theoretical description, explanation and prediction. To address the complexity challenges through simulation models, which would coherently link micro-level decisions with macro-level processes, a coherent model design and construction process is needed. Here, we present such a process alongside its five building blocks: an agent-based simulation of migration route formation, resembling the recent asylum migration to Europe; an evaluation framework for migration data; psychological experiments eliciting decisions under uncertainty; the choice of a programming language and modelling formalisms; and statistical analysis with Bayesian meta-modelling based on Gaussian Process assumptions and experimental design principles. This process allows to identify knowledge advancements that can be achieved through modelling, and to elucidate the remaining knowledge gaps.
Date of Conference: 14-18 December 2020
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 29 March 2021
ISBN Information:
ISSN Information:
INSPEC Accession Number: 20607031
Publisher: IEEE
Conference Location: Orlando, FL, USA

1 INTRODUCTION

Uncertainty and complexity are some of the key defining features of human migration - one of the main global challenges of today’s world. In particular, this holds true for the formation or change of migration routes, or responses of flows to the underlying drivers, which are characterised by very high volatility, as witnessed during the 2015–16 Syrian asylum crisis (Kingsley 2016). One reason behind this complexity, and behind the inefficiency of attempts to control migration, is the agency of various actors involved – migrants, institutions, intermediaries, and so on (Castles 2004). This agency also remains one fundamental reason why migration typically eludes attempts at its theoretical description, explanation and prediction, the efforts undertaken having historically remained scattered across various disciplines (Arango 2000).

References

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